Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.233695 0.282616 0.341855 0.419712 0.520602 0.648681 8.264455e-01
2025-05-11 0.157409 0.207088 0.274062 0.373278 0.520665 0.738595 1.099546e+00
2025-05-18 0.109036 0.152907 0.217173 0.322011 0.496721 0.792390 1.370876e+00
2025-05-25 0.078299 0.115684 0.174360 0.278334 0.470306 0.838791 1.689103e+00
2025-06-01 0.061344 0.095262 0.152177 0.261723 0.486626 0.981449 2.363008e+00
2025-06-08 0.049390 0.080200 0.135139 0.249387 0.509390 1.166645 3.426218e+00
2025-06-15 0.041007 0.069408 0.123038 0.243244 0.546589 1.434226 5.302578e+00
2025-06-22 0.034551 0.060716 0.112787 0.238020 0.587517 1.775576 8.526118e+00
2025-06-29 0.028576 0.051717 0.099731 0.222011 0.593323 2.033490 1.259910e+01
2025-07-06 0.021890 0.040117 0.078623 0.179171 0.496206 1.802942 1.267528e+01
2025-07-13 0.019060 0.035893 0.072867 0.174890 0.525031 2.187860 2.116562e+01
2025-07-20 0.017170 0.033289 0.070218 0.178513 0.587829 2.891944 4.331570e+01
2025-07-27 0.015560 0.031134 0.068510 0.185882 0.682293 4.134218 1.185329e+02
2025-08-03 0.013916 0.028600 0.065266 0.187520 0.760164 5.652749 3.572643e+02
2025-08-10 0.012208 0.025608 0.060107 0.180687 0.794279 7.059469 1.067092e+03
2025-08-17 0.010685 0.022802 0.054816 0.171337 0.809269 8.504220 3.732480e+03
2025-08-24 0.009712 0.021184 0.052520 0.172768 0.899114 12.031892 5.702343e+04
2025-08-31 0.008874 0.019761 0.050461 0.174489 1.001523 17.466419 3.334340e+08
2025-09-07 0.008194 0.018631 0.049025 0.178518 1.138251 27.095129 NaN
2025-09-14 0.007578 0.017568 0.047547 0.181893 1.286901 43.037192 NaN
2025-09-21 0.006866 0.016123 0.044478 0.176035 1.340913 58.407160 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005837 0.013668 0.037549 0.147502 1.105261 45.312141 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005415 0.012865 0.036107 0.147411 1.203208 68.471336 NaN